Spillover Effects of Import Trade Fluctuations for China and the US: A Global Perspective

This paper constructs an international trade network model to investigate the spillover effects of import decline in China and the US. Our results show that, first, research target countries can be divided into spillover blockers, absorbers, and amplifiers based on whether they transmit economic shocks. Second, for the same degree of decline in import in China and the US, export changes in the major world economies are affected more by the US than by China. In addition, the impact of import decline in the US on China is greater than that in China on the US. Meanwhile, China’s original economic shock could be amplified much more than that of the US. Third, in terms of the transmission of economic impact, Asian and European countries are largely affected, whereas countries in South America are least likely to be affected by economic shocks from China and the US.