A modified Delphi method to elicit and compare perceptions of industry trends

, we argue that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can help to explain the cognitive barriers in this context. In the present article, we propose and demonstrate a 7-step Delphi based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts. We use the case study of a leading Nordic insurance firm to illustrate the method. Therefore, in this article, we:•Suggest that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can explain the cognitive barriers that emerge when incumbent firms try to engage with radical business model innovation.•Propose a Delphi-based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts.•Demonstrate the method on a case firm from the insurance industry, in a way that can easily be replicated in future studies.