Predicting Risks of Cadmium Toxicity in Salinity-Fluctuating Estuarine Waters Using the Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Model

In estuaries, salinity fluctuates rapidly and continuously, greatly affecting the bioavailability and thus toxicity of contaminants, especially metals, causing difficulties in deriving site-specific water quality criteria. We developed a method for predicting the toxicity of the metal cadmium (Cd) in estuarine waters of any salinity fluctuation scenario. Cd bioaccumulation and toxicity were measured in an estuarine clam Potamocorbula laevis under stable salinities (salinity = 5, 15, 25) and fluctuating salinities (5-25), using the toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) framework. Cd bioaccumulation decreases with increasing salinity; whereas intrinsic Cd sensitivity of organisms reaches the minimum at an intermediate salinity around 20. At each specific Cd level, interpolating TK-TD parameters measured at the stable salinities well predicts the Cd bioaccumulation and toxicity under fluctuating salinities. To extend the model for various Cd levels, the biotic ligand model (BLM) was integrated into the TK-TD framework. The BLM-based TK-TD model was successfully applied to scenarios of simulated and monitored salinity fluctuations in estuarine waters, for which the median lethal concentrations and no-effect concentrations (2.0-3.1 μg L-1) of Cd were derived. Overall, we integrated the BLM and TK-TD models and provided a useful tool for predicting metal risks and deriving criteria values for salinity-fluctuating estuarine waters.