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Climate change is triggering similar effects on the incidence and severity of disease for crops in agriculture and wild plants in natural communities. The complexity of natural ecosystems, however, generates a complex array of interactions between wild plants and pathogens in marked contrast to those generated in the structural and species simplicity of most agricultural crops. Understanding the different impacts of climate change on agricultural and natural ecosystems requires accounting for the specific interactions between an individual pathogen and its host(s) and their subsequent effects on the interplay between the host and other species in the community. Ultimately, progress will require looking past short-term fluctuations to multiyear trends to understand the nature and extent of plant and pathogen evolutionary adaptation and determine the fate of plants under future climate change.
Burdon et al. (Tue,) studied this question.