Electoral manipulation or astute electoral strategy? Explaining the results of Pakistan’s 2018 Election

The focus of this article is to explain the outcome of Pakistan’s 2018 Election, which is only the second successful transfer of power from one civilian government to another after completing a full five-year term. The PTI (Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf) emerged victorious with a greater majority than was predicted, soundly defeating the incumbent ruling party PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz). We question why an incumbent governing party that had been delivering on its campaign promises and was generally perceived to be performing well lost the election to PTI, a newer and more inexperienced party. We make a nested argument in this paper: had an uneven playing field not been created in the pre-poll phase due to reported interference by the military and the media in the formation of public opinion, so-called electables would not have defected to the PTI in large numbers. It is in the context of this broader political environment that PTI’s electoral strategy to accept these defecting politicians and select them as candidates paid-off, earning the party an electoral majority.