Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks

Abstract This paper investigates how a central bank digital currency can be expected to impact a monopolistic banking sector. The paper’s framework of analysis combines the Diamond (1965) model of government debt with the Klein (1971) and Monti (1972) model of a monopoly bank. The paper finds that the introduction of a central bank digital currency has no detrimental effect on bank lending activity and may, in some circumstances, even serve to promote it. Competitive pressure leads to a higher monopoly deposit rate which reduces profit but expands deposit funding through greater financial inclusion and desired saving. An appeal to available theory and evidence suggests that a properly designed central bank digital currency is not likely to threaten financial stability.