Dynamiques de pauvreté en Russie : une analyse en termes d'entrées et de sorties

The dynamics of poverty in Russia: An analysis in terms of exit and entry Since poverty in Russia is mainly a transitory phenomenon, with many movements in and out, analyzing it necessitates evaluating transition probabilities. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey and duration models are used to study poverty transitions in Russia between 1994 and 2000. A nonpara- metric method estimates poverty exit, entry and re-entry rates, which depend on how long spells of poverty and nonpoverty last. Logistic discrete-time models are then estimated separately for exits and entries so as to identify the factors associated with poverty transitions. Variables are introduced for taking into account strategic household behaviors; and emphasis is laid on the distinction between promotion and prevention strategies with the aims, respectively, of exiting from, or preventing an entry into, poverty.