Baseline Circulating Tumor Cell Count as a Prognostic Marker of PSA Response and Disease Progression in Metastatic Castrate-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (SWOG S1216)

PURPOSE: In metastatic castrate-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC), combined androgen axis inhibition is a standard of care. Noninvasive biomarkers that guide initial therapy decisions are needed. We hypothesized that CellSearch circulating tumor cell (CTC) count, an FDA-cleared assay in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), is a relevant biomarker in mCSPC. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: SWOG S1216 is a phase III prospective randomized trial of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with orteronel or bicalutamide for mCSPC. CellSearch CTC count was measured at registration (baseline). Prespecified CTC cut-off points of 0, 1-4, and ≥5 were correlated with baseline patient characteristics and, in a stratified subsample, were also correlated with two prespecified trial secondary endpoints: 7-month PSA ≤0.2 ng/mL versus 0.2-4.0 versus >4.0 (intermediate endpoint for overall survival); and progression-free survival (PFS) ≤ versus >2 years. RESULTS: = 336) compared with men with baseline CTCs ≥5. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline CTC count in mCSPC is highly prognostic of 7-month PSA and 2-year PFS after adjusting for disease burden and discriminates men who are likely to experience poor survival outcomes.