Impacts of land use change on thermodynamic and dynamic changes of precipitation for the Yangtze River Basin, China

Abstract Many studies found that land use change (LUC) had great impacts on regional precipitation, due to thermodynamic and dynamic responses. However, the relative contributions of these two factors to changes in precipitation due to LUC are rarely investigated. This study quantifies the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic to the changes of mean and extreme precipitation due to LUC based on simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is used as a case study, as it has experienced great LUC during the past decades. Four land use scenarios (two factual cases and two hypothetical reforestation scenarios) were used to test the sensitivity of precipitation changes to LUC. Changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the YRB for all seasons are attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic changes using 500‐hPa geopotential height and precipitation data derived from the simulations of WRF. The results show that the factual process of LUC results in a decrease in summer mean daily precipitation and precipitation extremes in most areas of the YRB (except for the middle reaches of the YRB), while the hypothetical reforestation contributes to an increase in summer mean and extreme precipitation, and the impacts of reforestation on increasing precipitation are limited. The thermodynamic change contributes to an increase in seasonal mean daily precipitation, extreme precipitation totals and occurrence frequency of precipitation extremes with contributions ranging from 94 to 102%, which is the main contributor of changes in precipitation due to LUC. The dynamic change only makes a small contribution to the change of precipitation. Because the contributions of thermodynamic can be offset by dynamic changes to changes in precipitation, it could result in minimal changes in precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes.