Are old regions less attractive? Interregional labour migration in a context of population ageing

Regional demographic change is often conceptualized as a circular process, where out-migration continuously worsens conditions of population ageing and shrinkage. Thus, if migration acts as a consequence as well as cause of ageing, migration patterns should be influenced by the age structure of origin and destination regions. This paper analyses individual-level migration decisions of full-time employees across 326 German regions between 1997 and 2013 using binary choice models. The results show that individuals are more likely to migrate out of and less likely to migrate towards ageing regions. Moreover, the identified patterns are consistent with age-selective migration reinforcing ageing processes and polarization of demographic structure. El cambio demográfico regional se suele conceptualizar como un proceso circular, en el que la emigración empeora continuamente las condiciones de envejecimiento y reducción de la población. Por lo tanto, si la migración actúa tanto como consecuencia como causa del envejecimiento, los patrones de migración deberían estar influenciados por la estructura de edad de las regiones de origen y destino. Este artículo analiza las decisiones de migración a nivel individual de empleados a tiempo completo en 326 regiones alemanas entre 1997 y 2013 mediante la utilización de modelos de elección binaria. Los resultados muestran que las personas son más propensas a emigrar fuera de las regiones envejecidas y menos a emigrar hacia ellas. Además, los patrones identificados están en consonancia con la migración selectiva por edades que refuerza los procesos de envejecimiento y la polarización de la estructura demográfica. 地域の人口統計額的な変化は循環的なプロセスとして概念化されることが多いが、地域の外への移住は高齢化と人口縮小の問題を悪化させ続ける。すなわち、移住が高齢化の結果でも原因でもあるとすると、移住パターンはその出発地と目的地の住民の年齢構成の影響を受けるはずである。本稿では、1997~2013年のドイツの326地域を対象に、二値選択モデルを用いて、個人レベルでのフルタイムで働く労働者の移住に関する意思決定を分析した。結果から、高齢化が進む地域から移動する確率が高く、高齢化が進む地域に移動する確率が低いことが示された。さらに、確認された移住のパターンは、高齢化と人口統計学的構成の二極化に拍車をかける年齢選択的な移住と一致するものである。 Migration affects the size and composition of population and is, therefore, a fundamental component of demographic shifts. With fertility rates falling below replacement level in most industrial nations, migration has become the primary driver of population growth on a national and regional level. Moreover, since migration is often selective, for example, with respect to age, gender, or skill-level, it also shapes the composition of population and thus contributes to population ageing. However, although migration clearly affects demographic structure, regional demography could in turn influence migration behaviour. Despite the current and predicted future extent of population ageing in Europe and globally (Coleman, 2006), the question of how these changes in the age structure may affect regional migration patterns has so far received relatively little attention. Theoretically, population ageing may directly affect aggregate migration rates through shifts in the population composition: older regions have fewer individuals in the most mobile life stages. However, demographic change is also associated with changes in regional characteristics, which may influence a region's attractiveness for migrants on an individual level. Strongly ageing regions may simultaneously experience adverse economic and labour market conditions, which reinforces out-migration. Moreover, as public services and amenities are adapted to an older population, ageing regions may become less attractive for younger individuals specifically. The relationship between migration and population ageing may therefore be bi-directional as well as mutually reinforcing. This is reflected in conceptualizations of regional demographic change as a circular process (e.g., Bontje Hoekveld, 2012): regions with declining and ageing population may become continuously less attractive to migrants. The interplay between migration and population ageing could thus lead to a polarization of demographic structures. Demographic change has far-reaching socio-economic effects, for example, on economic growth and productivity, provision of public services, and social cohesion. In this sense, the potentially reinforcing roles of population ageing and migration are directly relevant for issues of regional development. However, despite progressing demographic change on a global scale, there is limited theoretical and empirical literature on how a region's demographic structure affects individual migration behaviour. Micro-level studies emphasize the relevance of an individual's age in migration decisions (e.g., Goetzke Millington, 2000) but neglect the effect the regional age structure may have on individuals. Aggregate studies of migration often include the share of young population (e.g., Biagi et al., 2011; Hatton Rodríguez-Pose Plane Plane & Millington, et al., Goetzke and show that age of and amenities or with particularly to and younger more to Thus, there may be across regions on the age for example, on labour market factors Moreover, age may also have for of for example, in of public services the provision of public services age structure, this could affect a region's attractiveness for age example, provision may be a for and thus in decisions for these age but not for older In and emphasize the relevance of for migration the we in how migration decisions with regional age structure for younger and older individuals. the relevance of ageing for migration is thus and in the studies test the of age structure as an in migration. is an analysis by et show that regions with of population may net migration but this a aggregate analysis with control This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether an ageing population may influence regional attractiveness for migration. In contrast to et and most literature on migration this analyses individual-level should be that we do not a relationship between age structure and migration decisions but focus on the effects of regional ageing. the regional age structure could the of amenities that of individuals migration. using individual level data of of age structure that in aggregate analyses of migration Moreover, individual data allows not whether migration behaviour with the regional age composition but also whether this effect by may out regions where are as for migrants in et al., that migration reinforces population ageing, which may empirical results of demographic polarization (e.g., & et al., and for future polarization of age structures. 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