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Strategic dam planning and the deployment of decentralized renewable technologies are two elements of the same problem, yet normally addressed in isolation. Here, we show that an integrated view of the power system capacity expansion problem could have transformative effects for Southeast Asia's hydropower plans. We demonstrate that Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia have tangible opportunities for meeting projected electricity demand and CO2 emission targets with less hydropower than currently planned-options range from halting the construction of all dams in the Lower Mekong to building 82% of the planned ones. The key enabling strategies for these options to succeed are solar PV and regional coordination, expressed in the form of centralized planning and cross-border power trading. The alternative expansion plans would slightly increase the cumulative costs (up to 2.4%), but substantially limit the fragmentation of additional river reaches, thereby offering more sustainable pathways for the Mekong's ecosystems and riparian people.
Siala et al. (Tue,) studied this question.