Variability in body weight and the risk of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: results from the Swedish National Diabetes Register

Abstract Background There is a high incidence of cardiovascular disease in diabetes. Weight variability has been reported as independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease in the general population and preliminarily also in people with type 2 diabetes. Methods Using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register the possible link between visit-to-visit body weight variability and the risk of cardiovascular complications among people with type 2 diabetes and without prevalent cardiovascular diseases at baseline has been evaluated. Overall, 100,576 people with type 2 diabetes, with at least five measurements of body weight taken over three consecutive years, were included. Variability was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation of the measures during the three years. The primary composite outcome included non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and all-cause mortality and was assessed during five years following the first 3 years of exposure to weight variability. Results After adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors, the risk of the primary composite outcome significantly increased with increasing body weight variability upper quartile HR = 1.45; 95% confidence interval 1.39–1.52. Furthermore, elevated body weight variability was associated with almost all the other cardiovascular complications considered (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause mortality, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral vascular angioplasty, hospitalization for heart failure, foot ulcer, and all-cause mortality). Conclusions High body weight variability predicts the development of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes. These data suggest that any strategy to reduce the body weight in these subjects should be aimed at maintaining the reduction in the long-term, avoiding oscillations.