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Supply chains (SCs) are exposed to multiple risks and vulnerable to disruption propagation (i. e. , the ripple effect). Despite established literature, quantitative analysis of the ripple effect SCs considering simultaneous, long-term disruptions (i. e. , induced by the COVID-19) remains limited. This study defines, applies and demonstrates the capability of dynamics modelling to recognise and visualise the ripple effect subject to supply, , and logistics disruptions as well as a combined, simultaneous disruption of supply, and logistics. Simulation results for these four risk scenarios indicate that disruption and its impacts vary based on risk type, combination of risks and the impacting. The bi-directional, increasing effect is significant for disruptions of longer duration. and manufacturers are most fragile to multiple disruptions due to broader risk points. In generalised terms, systems theory-based study provides insights into the behaviour of simultaneous risks and associated disruptions occurring at a node and the SC. The outcomes derived can help practitioners visualise and recognise the dynamic of the ripple effect cascading across the SC network. In addition, some novel insights the systemic nature and delayed impact of disruption propagations are uncovered and.
Ghadge et al. (Tue,) studied this question.