Deep learning for the prediction of early on-treatment response in metastatic colorectal cancer from serial medical imaging

In current clinical practice, tumor response assessment is usually based on tumor size change on serial computerized tomography (CT) scan images. However, evaluation of tumor response to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapies in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is limited because morphological change in tumor may occur earlier than tumor size change. Here we present an analysis utilizing a deep learning (DL) network to characterize tumor morphological change for response assessment in mCRC patients. We retrospectively analyzed 1,028 mCRC patients who were prospectively included in the VELOUR trial (NCT00561470). We found that DL network was able to predict early on-treatment response in mCRC and showed better performance than its size-based counterpart with C-Index: 0.649 (95% CI: 0.619,0.679) vs. 0.627 (95% CI: 0.567,0.638), p = 0.009, z-test. The integration of DL network with size-based methodology could further improve the prediction performance to C-Index: 0.694 (95% CI: 0.661,0.720), which was superior to size/DL-based-only models (all p < 0.001, z-test). Our study suggests that DL network could provide a noninvasive mean for quantitative and comprehensive characterization of tumor morphological change, which may potentially benefit personalized early on-treatment decision making.