Analysis of Influencing Factors and Trend Forecast of CO2 Emission in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is a primary source of global energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It is employed as a major means of modern economic and social activities. Analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of CO2 emissions in urban agglomerations and prediction of the future trends of CO2 emissions in urban agglomerations will help in the implementation of CO2 reduction policies within region-wide areas. So, based on that, this study contains four aspects. Firstly, it calculates the energy CO2 emissions of China’s Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. Secondly, it analyzes the time and space changes in the area by using ArcGIS. Then, the STIRPAT model is used to investigate the factors influencing CO2 emissions, and the elasticity coefficient of the influencing factors is estimated using the ridge regression method, and the important influencing factors are screened on the basis of the estimated results, which are then used as input features for prediction. Finally, a combined prediction model based on the improved GM (1, N) and SVR models is constructed, and then the optimal solution is found through the particle swarm optimization algorithm. It sets up different CO2 emission scenarios to predict the energy CO2 emission of the region and its cities. The results show that, first, the CO2 emissions of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have accumulated year by year, but by 2030, as predicted, it will not reach its peak. The spatial layout of CO2 emissions in this region is not expected to undergo major changes by 2030. Second, population, GDP, gas and electricity consumption, and industrial structure have served as important factors affecting energy CO2 emissions in the region. Third, on the basis of the prediction results for different scenarios, the CO2 emissions in the baseline scenario are low in the short term, but the CO2 emissions in the low-carbon scenario are low in the long run. This study also puts forward some policy recommendations on how to reduce CO2 emissions.