The National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) reliably predicted 24-hour mortality (average AUC 0.90), but predictive accuracy declined to an AUC of 0.76 for 30-day mortality.
Systematic Review
Does the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) accurately predict absolute mortality at different cut-off values and prediction windows in adult patients?
NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24 hours, but its mortality predictions beyond 24 hours are unreliable.
Estimación del efecto: AUC 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days
BACKGROUND: Although early warning scores were intended to simply identify patients in need of life-saving interventions, prediction has become their commonest metric. This review examined variation in the ability of the National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) in adult patients to predict absolute mortality at different times and cut-offs values. METHOD: Following PRISMA guidelines, all studies reporting NEWS and NEWS2 providing enough information to fulfil the review's aims were included. RESULTS: From 121 papers identified, the average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality declined from 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days. Studies with a low overall mortality had a higher AUC for 24-hour mortality, as did general ward patients compared to patients seen earlier in their treatment. 24-hour mortality increased from 1.8% for a NEWS ≥3 to 7.8% for NEWS ≥7. Although 24-hour mortality for NEWS <3 was only 0.07% these deaths accounted for 9% of all deaths within 24-hours; for NEWS <7 24-hour mortality was 0.23%, which accounted for 44% of all 24-hour deaths. Within 30-days of a NEWS recording 22% of all deaths occurred in patients with a NEWS <3, 52% in patients with a NEWS <5, and 75% in patient with a NEWS <7. CONCLUSION: NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24-hours, which is what it was designed to do. However, many patients identified to have a low risk of imminent death die within 30-days. NEWS mortality predictions beyond 24-hours are unreliable.
Holland et al. (Fri,) conducted a systematic review in Adult patients at risk of mortality. National Early Warning Scores (NEWS and NEWS2) vs. Different cut-off values and prediction windows was evaluated on Absolute mortality at different times and cut-off values (AUC 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days). The National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) reliably predicted 24-hour mortality (average AUC 0.90), but predictive accuracy declined to an AUC of 0.76 for 30-day mortality.