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The prognosis of bearings is vital for condition-based maintenance of rotating machinery. This article proposes a systematic prognostic scheme for rolling element bearings. The proposed scheme infers the degradation progression by developing a novel health indicator (HI). This novel HI, derived from the spectral correlation, Wasserstein distance, and linear rectification, can reflect the changes in the probability distribution of all cyclic power-spectra over time. In other words, any form of variation in modulation characteristics can be revealed through the proposed novel indicator, even for the weak information buried by the internal or external noise. Furthermore, the developed HI can eliminate random fluctuations that often impair the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction accuracy. Then, a 3 criterion-based technique is introduced to divide health stages. After that, the gated recurrent unit network is employed to predict the RUL of the bearing system, integrated with the Bayesian optimization algorithm to tune the optimal hyperparameters adaptively. This renders the establishment of an intelligent prognosis model with high prediction accuracy and generalization ability. Finally, experimental validations are conducted using the run-to-failure datasets of bearings. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed HI has better monotonicity, and the proposed prognostic scheme can predict the RUL with high accuracy.
Ni et al. (Tue,) studied this question.