Multi-Dimensional Prediction of Guild Health in Online Games: A Stability-Aware Multi-Task Learning Approach

Guild is the most important long-term virtual community and emotional bond in massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). It matters a lot to the player retention and game ecology how the guilds are going, e.g., healthy or not. The main challenge now is to characterize and predict the guild health in a quantitative, dynamic, and multi-dimensional manner based on complicated multi-media data streams. To this end, we propose a novel framework, namely Stability-Aware Multi-task Learning Approach(SAMLA) to address these challenges. Specifically, different media-specific modules are designed to extract information from multiple media types of tabular data, time seriescharacteristics, and heterogeneous graphs. To capture the dynamics of guild health, we introduce a representation encoder to provide a time series view of multi-media data that is used for task prediction. Inspiredby well-received theories on organization management, we delicately define five specific and quantitative dimensions of guild health and make parallel predictions based on a multi-task approach. Besides, we devise a novel auxiliary task, i.e.,the guild stability, to boost the performance of the guild health prediction task. Extensive experiments on a real-world large-scale MMORPG dataset verify that our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in the task of organizational health characterization and prediction. Moreover, our work has been practically deployed in online MMORPG, and case studies clearly illustrate the significant value.