Linking evolutionary dynamics to species extinction for flowering plants in global biodiversity hotspots

Abstract Aim Biodiversity hotspots are regions with the highest species richness, and the most threatened species. Previous studies have shown that the extinction risk may be more related to evolutionary history than to species' traits. However, there is a knowledge gap on the relationship between evolutionary history and species extinction risk in biodiversity hotspots. Here, we link evolutionary history to species extinction risk for flowering plants (angiosperms) in global biodiversity hotspots. Location Global biodiversity hotspots. Methods We calculated historical evolutionary measures (family species richness, family age, family diversification rate and the ratio of crown age to stem age) of angiosperms from 36 global biodiversity hotspots, which were grouped into 27 regions. Bayesian binomial‐logit univariate and multivariable regression models in conjunction with phylogenetic control and null models were used to identify the evolutionary history predictors of extinction risk for the 27 regions as a whole and for each of the regions. Results Family species richness, family age and family diversification rate are all good indicators for predicting extinction risk. Specifically, when all the 27 regions were considered as a whole, families with higher species richness, older age and/or faster diversification rates have a higher risk of species extinction. However, high extinction risk in some regions, especially in temperate regions, tends to occur in families with low species richness and low diversification rates. Main conclusions Geographic origin and evolutionary history of species should be jointly taken into account in conservation planning. In general, protection priority should be given to families with high species richness, ancient origins and fast diversification rate because these families seem to be prone to higher extinction risk. Additionally, different strategies should be applied to protect biodiversity in temperate versus tropical regions given that factors affecting extinction risk are different between these regions.