Comparison of multimodel simulations of land use and land cover change considering integrated constraints - A case study of the Fuxian Lake basin

The simulation and future prediction of spatial and temporal land use and land cover change (LUCC) have long been the focus (and challenge) of research on land use change and sustainable development. However, the existing research lacks empirical comparisons among different simulation models under the same conditions in the same region; hence, the most accurate simulation results cannot be obtained through the optimal model. In this paper, taking the Fuxian Lake basin as an example, the CA-Markov, FLUS, and PLUS models are adopted to explore the optimal model for simulating LUCC in this basin by integrating restricted areas of LUCC. This study shows the following. (1) The simulation results are more accurate under the joint restrictions of open water, prohibited development zones and ecological protection red lines than under a single restriction. (2) All three models can simulate the LUCC in the Fuxian Lake basin. Among these models, the PLUS model has the highest simulation accuracy in simulating LUCC at the basin scale and offers the best match of land types in terms of their quantity and spatial distribution. (3) The PLUS model can accurately predict the changes of LULC in the Fuxian Lake basin. The results of this study should help decision makers evaluate land use development patterns and provide a reference for the formulation of regional sustainable development policies.