Gravity center change of carbon emissions in Chinese residential building sector: Differences between urban and rural area

In China, dynamic spatial–temporal evolution and urban–rural gap in carbon emissions of residential building sector are crucial for understanding the current state, which is faced with great challenges related to emission mitigation. To overcome the challenge, this study employed the gravity center model to explore spatial–temporal evolution of carbon emissions and analyzed the driving factories leading the differences between urban residential buildings and rural residential buildings via decomposition analysis. Meanwhile, Tapio decoupling index is used to predict the future movement of the gravity center. Our results indicated that: (i) the carbon emissions gravity center of both residential building types tends to move south; (ii) the northeast and northwest regions play the largest role in driving the gravity center movement of urban residential buildings and rural residential buildings, respectively; (iii) per capita disposable income is the primary factors affecting the gravity center movement. (iv) the gravity center of both residential building types might tend to move westward in the future. Overall, this study attempts to remedy the current lack of research pertaining to spatial–temporal evolution laws governing carbon emissions in the Chinese residential building sector and provides a reference point for the implementation of targeted urban and rural emission reduction policies.