Changing trends of rates of return: a study from the higher education market in China

Since the 1990s, higher education at different levels has been expanding along with the high-speed development of the Chinese economy. Based on large-scale survey data of the whole country in 1995, 2002, 2008, and 2013, the paper studies the dynamic rates of return (ROR) to higher education at different levels in China. The empirical results show that (1) The ROR to junior college level and undergraduate level shows an increase following a decreasing trend. (2) The ROR to postgraduate education has been maintaining an increasing trend at a constant speed. (3) At junior college and undergraduate levels, the ROR of females is higher than that of males, which is consistent with the gender difference of other educational levels. (4) At the postgraduate level, the ROR of males is higher than that of females, and such cases can be seen in other countries and regions. These findings can be new evidence for market-oriented postgraduate education and support the cost-sharing policy. Then it is possible to develop postgraduate education with market logic and increase tuition while increasing the scale of postgraduate education.