The Impact of Financial Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Nonperforming Loans among Emerging Countries: An Assessment Using the NARDL Approach

The relationship between financial development indicators and non-performing loans (NPLs) has garnered significant attention, especially in emerging countries. The puzzle of whether financial sector development increases or decreases Non-performing Loans (NPL)s has not been resolved to the satisfaction of the curious mind. This research attempts to answer the above question by studying the asymmetric and symmetric association between financial sector development and NPLs, by utilizing the novel non-linear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) and the linear autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) approach. Moreover, to make the study inclusive, we have added a series of proxies to measure financial sector development and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Our main findings confirm that financial sector development and NPLs move together in the long run, and there is significant evidence of the asymmetric relationship. We infer that NPLs react differently to the negative and positive shocks of financial development and macroeconomic variables both in the short and long run. In the long-run positive shocks in financial intermediation, banking efficiency, banking depth, banking stability index, and banking non-interest income significantly impact the NPLs in emerging countries. The positive shocks of financial sector development (financial intermediation and size of banks) increase NPLs in emerging countries and vice-versa. Furthermore, regarding the macroeconomic variables, the positive shock of inflation, unemployment, and interest rate positively affect NPLs. The empirical analysis also concludes that in the long-run foreign bank presence is an insignificant factor affecting NPLs in the selected countries. This study emphasizes that, unlike the linear model, the non-linear model provides a more realistic and robust result by highlighting hidden asymmetries, which will help policymakers make appropriate strategic decisions.