Solar Flare Index Prediction Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products with Statistical and Machine-learning Methods

Abstract Solar flares, especially the M- and X-class flares, are often associated with coronal mass ejections. They are the most important sources of space weather effects, which can severely impact the near-Earth environment. Thus it is essential to forecast flares (especially the M- and X-class ones) to mitigate their destructive and hazardous consequences. Here, we introduce several statistical and machine-learning approaches to the prediction of an active region’s (AR) flare index (FI) that quantifies the flare productivity of an AR by taking into account the number of different class flares within a certain time interval. Specifically, our sample includes 563 ARs that appeared on the solar disk from 2010 May to 2017 December. The 25 magnetic parameters, provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, characterize coronal magnetic energy stored in ARs by proxy and are used as the predictors. We investigate the relationship between these SHARP parameters and the FI of ARs with a machine-learning algorithm (spline regression) and the resampling method (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Regression with Gaussian Noise). Based on the established relationship, we are able to predict the value of FIs for a given AR within the next 1 day period. Compared with other four popular machine-learning algorithms, our methods improve the accuracy of FI prediction, especially for a large FI. In addition, we sort the importance of SHARP parameters by the Borda count method calculated from the ranks that are rendered by nine different machine-learning methods.