A novel risk score incorporating age, hemoglobin, creatinine, and log-transformed BNP successfully predicted new-onset heart failure hospitalization in atrial fibrillation patients with an AUC of 0.76 in external validation.
Observational (n=5,373)
Yes
Can a risk model using clinical characteristics and biomarkers predict new-onset heart failure admission in patients with atrial fibrillation?
A novel risk score using age, hemoglobin, creatinine, and BNP can accurately predict new-onset heart failure hospitalization in patients with atrial fibrillation.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81)
AIM: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a well-known risk factor for heart failure (HF). We sought to develop and externally validate a risk model for new-onset HF admission in patients with AF and those without a history of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using two multicentre, prospective, observational AF registries, RAFFINE (2857 patients, derivation cohort) and SAKURA (2516 patients without a history of HF, validation cohort), we developed a risk model by selecting variables with regularized regression and weighing coefficients by Cox regression with the derivation cohort. External validity testing was used for the validation cohort. Overall, 148 (5.2%) and 104 (4.1%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, developed HF during median follow-ups of 1396 (interquartile range IQR: 1078-1820) and 1168 (IQR: 844-1309) days, respectively. In the derivation cohort, age, haemoglobin, serum creatinine, and log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide were identified as potential risk factors for HF development. The risk model showed good discrimination and calibration in both derivations (area under the curve AUC: 0.80 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.84; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.257) and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.78 95%CI 0.74-0.83; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.475). CONCLUSION: The novel risk model with four readily available clinical characteristics and biomarkers performed well in predicting new-onset HF admission in patients with AF.
Ishii et al. (Tue,) conducted a observational in Atrial fibrillation (n=5,373). Risk score (age, hemoglobin, creatinine, log-transformed BNP) was evaluated on Discrimination (Area Under the ROC Curve) for new-onset heart failure hospitalization in the validation cohort (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81). A novel risk score incorporating age, hemoglobin, creatinine, and log-transformed BNP successfully predicted new-onset heart failure hospitalization in atrial fibrillation patients with an AUC of 0.76 in external validation.