Multivariate analysis and modeling of shoreline changes using geospatial data

Understanding of shoreline dynamics is essential to coastal management and the development of tropical archipelagic countries. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors affecting shoreline changes and their future predictions in Bengkayang Regency, West Kalimantan. Research data used includes historical maps, remote sensing imagery, total suspended solids, underwater slope and depth, distance from the estuaries, wind speed, and distance from the coastal constructions. The multiple linear regression models and digital shoreline analysis system were applied. Findings showed accretion occurred in 1981, 1991, and 2021 while abrasion was detected in 2001 and 2011. The shorelines gained 37.05 meters between 1945 and 2021 under intensive accretion in segments 2–4 while abrasion recorded in segments 6–8. Furthermore, the shorelines are projected to be abraded between 2021 and 2041. These findings are recommended to be considered in the development of coastal areas that are adaptive to climate change, sea-level rise, and land subsidence.