Assessing critical materials demand in global energy transition scenarios based on the Dynamic Extraction and Recycling Input-Output framework (DYNERIO)

The energy transition process calls for striving interventions towards low-carbon technologies. While their deployment is expected to drive down greenhouse gases emissions, it is expected to bring along intense critical materials exploitation. This article presents a quantitative framework to assess the impact of energy transition pathways in terms of raw materials extraction, coupling Input-Output models with energy modelling methodologies, defined as Dynamic Extraction and Recycling Input-Output framework (DYNERIO). The framework is analytically formalized and tested through a conceptual two-regions example based on EXIOBASE dataset. DYNERIO is composed by three modules: an environmentally-extended Multi-Regional Input-Output model assesses the demand of energy carriers based on exogenously defined final demand of commodities in future scenarios; an energy optimization model quantifies the time-evolution of the technology capacity stocks needed to satisfy such demand; finally, a third module quantifies the amount of materials demanded, recycled and extracted by each region to manufacture the capacity requirements.