The United States and stability in the Taiwan Strait

The changing dynamics of the Taiwan Strait necessitate a review of the United States’ “One China” policy. For more than four decades, this policy—anchored in the Taiwan Relations Act, the Six Assurances, and the three Joint Communiqués—has allowed Washington to maintain unofficial ties with Taipei. But China’s growing economic power, increasing military capabilities, and mounting pressure on Taiwan pose major challenges to US security commitments regarding Taiwan. In recent years, Washington has countered by attempting to pursue a multi-pronged approach while remaining under the umbrella of the One China policy framework—introducing such changes as new legislation conveying US support and commitment, engagement in high-level official exchanges, support for Taiwan’s pursuit of greater international space, and more arms sales. How these major policy changes are interpreted and implemented under the new environment imposed by China could affect Taiwan’s security, and whether a war with China can be avoided.