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Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are evaluated for the first time using 31 years (1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground- based observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production regions (Goh, Marahoué, and Haut-Sassandra) in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The work is a contribution to improving the quality of climate services dedicated to cocoa cultivation to ensure producers’ income and improve the yield of the production in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The results show that cocoa production is affected by the changes and variability in climate conditions (i.e. rainfall and temperature). In the Goh region, the increase in cocoa production seems to be mostly related to the augmentation of rainfall amount while in Marahoué, the increase in temperature is identified to have a more significant impact. Over the Haut-Sassandra region, both temperature and rainfall seem to have a considerable effect on the changes in cocoa production. The analysis based on linear regression by least-squares fit shows two characteristic modes (low and high-frequency variability) in the relationships between cocoa production and meteorological conditions suggesting a strong temporal signal impact related to the changes in the emblazoned surfaces. This leads to an important impact of the short-term variations of climate in cocoa production whereas, the influence of the long-term variability in climate on the cocoa yield seems marginal.
Yoroba et al. (Sun,) studied this question.