The role of natural resources in financial expansion: evidence from Central Asia

Abstract Central Asian States (CAS) have diverse natural resources. This research aims to shed light on the finance–natural resource’s association in the context of CAS namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in 1996–2020 using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag technique. It seeks to examine the research question, “What is the effect of natural resource wealth on the financial expansion (FE) of Central Asia?” The results demonstrated an inverted U-shaped association between financial growth and natural resource rents. It implies that natural resources are initially a “resource blessing” that later becomes a “resource curse.” Additionally, the effect of institutional quality (INQ) and human development (HD) on financial growth is examined. The results reveal that INQ and HD positively affect FE. Moreover, a bidirectional causal relationship exists between FE and INQ. Finally, all variables contribute to a long term FE. Based on these outcomes, the major policy recommendations are that the CAS authorities diversify their financial services and products and direct the proceeds from natural resource rents to effective investments particularly in HD. In addition, the social and political infrastructures in CAS must be restructured to achieve a high-quality institutional environment, which is necessary to increase the role of the private sector.