A decadal outlook for global aquaculture

Feeding an expected global population of 9 billion by 2050 is a daunting challenge that is engaging millions of farmers, food processors, traders, researchers, technical experts, and leaders the world over. Fish and other aquatic products from aquaculture can and will play a major role in meeting the dietary demands of all people, while also meeting the food security needs of the poorest. Recognizing the critical importance of aquaculture, and the need to exchange and discuss reliable information to further enhance its contribution to sustainable development, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), at the request of its Members, collaborated with the Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific (NACA) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China, to organize the Global Conference on Aquaculture Millennium +20 (GCA +20), on September 22–25, 2021 in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. Under the theme “Aquaculture for food and sustainable development”, the hybrid conference brought together experts and stakeholders from the aquaculture sector to discuss the current state and future of aquaculture, as well as its role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The GCA +20 was the fourth in a series of development-oriented conferences with the ambition of shaping the future of global aquaculture. The FAO Technical Conference on Aquaculture (Kyoto, Japan, 1976) reviewed the status, problems, opportunities, and potential for the culture of fish, crustaceans, mollusks, and seaweeds, and declared that the aquaculture sector had made encouraging progress in the past decades, producing significant quantities of nutritious food, income, and employment. The NACA/FAO GCA Millennium Conference (Bangkok, Thailand, 2000) adopted the Bangkok Declaration and Strategy on Aquaculture Development Beyond 2000, which articulated strategic elements addressing the role of aquaculture in alleviating poverty, enhancing food security, and maintaining the integrity and sustainability of natural resources and the environment (NACA/FAO, 2001). Importantly, the strong recommendations for enhanced international collaboration on global and regional aquaculture, which emerged from the conference, were brought to the attention of FAO's Committee on Fisheries (COFI) leading to the establishment of a new COFI Sub-Committee on Aquaculture in 2001, the only intergovernmental forum specifically dedicated to aquaculture (Halwart, 2022). The FAO/NACA GCA +10 (Phuket, Thailand, 2010) adopted the Phuket Consensus: a re-affirmation of commitment to the Bangkok Declaration, which recognized the continued value and relevance of the Strategy (FAO/NACA, 2012; Annex S1). The GCA +20 in turn highlighted the crucial role of aquaculture in providing a sustainable source of aquatic food, rich in protein and micronutrients, for a growing global population. With harvesting of wild fish stocks at capacity or declining because of overfishing and climate and environmental changes, aquaculture has become an essential source of aquatic food, providing over half of the world's fish for human consumption. However, the conference also recognized that the growth of the industry has come with environmental and social challenges, such as habitat destruction, pollution, inequality, social injustice, and labor rights issues. Regional and thematic reviews represent core elements of the GCA +20. Nine technical themes were selected for GCA +20, by an International Programme Committee, for their current and future relevance in the transformation of aquaculture toward achieving the SDGs. The themes cover core technical subjects, the social and human dimensions of aquaculture, and the planning and governance of the sector. Nine thematic reviews based on the themes were prepared by a group of technical experts commissioned by FAO. The thematic reviews covered the key issues of the day regarding the development and future progress of the development of sustainable aquaculture. Each review detailed the current and future trends, challenges, and opportunities, and considered crosscutting issues including biodiversity, gender mainstreaming, climate change, and capacity building. Following expert review, GCA +20 participants were invited to provide feedback on the reviews and their key messages, for a period before, during, and after the conference. At the conference, key findings from each thematic review were presented and then discussed by expert panels with input from the GCA +20 delegates. This written and oral feedback was provided for consideration by the authors in the preparation of the final draft and eight of these thematic reviews were selected for publication in this volume. Through these regional and thematic reviews, the GCA +20 recognized a series of needs and challenges for the future development of sustainable aquaculture and the conference proposed a range of solutions, including improving aquaculture practices to reduce environmental impacts, strengthening governance and regulatory frameworks, and promoting social responsibility in the industry. The conference also emphasized the importance of integrating aquaculture into broader agri-food systems, including the use of innovative technologies that can increase productivity and reduce waste. The conference further recognized the need for greater investments in research and development to support the sustainable growth of the industry. This included improving breeding programs to enhance the health and resilience of farmed types and species, developing new feed formulations to reduce reliance on wild fish stocks, and advancing technologies that can improve efficiency and reduce environmental impacts. A key output from the GCA +20—the Shanghai Declaration on Aquaculture for Food and Sustainable Development—highlights the principles and strategic pathways to maximize sustainable aquaculture in achieving the SDGs, with a special focus on “Leaving no one behind” (FAO, 2022a, Annex S1). FAO collects data on production from aquaculture and capture fisheries via annualized reporting from Member countries. These data are the most reliable and comprehensive basis for determining trends in production, although it should be noted that mechanisms for reporting aquatic food production are not always comparable with terrestrial livestock production in particular. For example, because of their emphasis on unprocessed wet weights, aquaculture and capture fisheries production values are not directly comparable in terms of edible animal sourced foods (Edwards et al., 2019). Total aquaculture production in 2021 comprised 90.9 million tonnes of aquatic animals and 35.2 million tonnes of algae, which when combined with 1900 tonnes of shells and pearls, accumulated to the highest ever total of aquaculture production at 126 million tonnes live weight with an estimated farm gate value of USD 296.5 billion (FAO, 2023a). Farmed finfish represents the greatest proportion of this production (47.1%) with a further 27.9%, 14.6% and 9.4% made up by seaweeds, mollusks, and crustaceans, respectively. Global aquaculture is unevenly distributed, with Asia being the main producer representing, in 2020, 91.6% of global production (and 85% of value). China accounts for 56.7% of global aquatic animal production and 59.5% of algal production (FAO, 2022b). The Americas, Europe, and Africa account for respectively 3.6%, 2.7%, and 1.9% of global production. It is often cited that aquaculture represents the fastest growing food production sector over recent decades with an average annual growth rate of 6.7% over the past three decades (FAO, 2022b). As aquaculture matures and production figures rise, however, this rate of growth is slowing, with an annual average growth of 3.5% for the period 2016–2021. In absolute terms, aquaculture production is still growing very significantly at nearly 19 million tonnes per annum. When considering fed and unfed aquaculture (e.g., filter feeding mollusks and finfish, and seaweeds), the former is the principal driver of aquaculture growth. Fed aquaculture represented 60% of production in 2000 and now represents 72.2%. Absolute levels of production for non-fed species have remained relatively constant over recent decades (FAO, 2022b). Marine and coastal aquaculture represents the largest percentage of aquaculture (55.5%), with the remainder being freshwater aquaculture. Nearly all algal production, the vast majority of mollusk production, and more than half of crustacean production come from marine environments. Freshwater aquaculture dominates in finfish production, representing 85.0% of global totals in 2021 (FAO, 2023a). On a global scale, aquaculture accounts for 49.2% of total aquaculture and fisheries production, with proportions varying geographically and across different production sectors. In Asia, aquaculture makes up 61.9% of total production compared with less than 7% for Africa when Egypt, the region's major aquaculture producer, is excluded (FAO, 2022b). Aquaculture production exceeds capture fisheries production for all sectors except marine finfish, which remains dominated by capture fisheries. Aquaculture production also exceeds capture fisheries production in middle-income countries, whereas capture fisheries predominate in low-income and high-income countries. While FAO Member countries have reported farming 710 species or species items since recording began (FAO, 2023a), they report current production of nearly 450 species or species items (FAO, 2020). However, data from the State of the World's Aquatic Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (FAO, 2019) indicated close to 700 species are currently being cultured. A relatively small number of species predominate with 50% of aquaculture production by volume constituted by just 12 species or species items including three seaweeds, six finfish species, two mollusks, and one crustacean. Aquaculture is estimated to directly employ 20.6 million producers, with 28% being women, compared with capture fisheries that employ 18% women. A relatively higher proportion of women are employed in the post-harvest sector in both capture fisheries and aquaculture. Clearly, the high growth rates of aquaculture production over recent decades, compared with the relatively stagnant production levels from capture fisheries, mean that aquaculture has been the predominant contributor to meeting the demand created by the doubling of global per capita fish consumption since 1960. Aquatic food consumption is expected to continue to rise for the next decade at approximately 1.4% perannum which is, by comparison, higher than that anticipated for red meat consumption (1% per annum). Growth in aquaculture production is expected to slow slightly in the coming decade, mainly because of increasing feed costs and the impact of policy changes in China (OECD/FAO, 2022). It is expected that 90% of this production will be for consumption as aquatic food. Apparent aquatic food (excluding seeweed) consumption globally is projected to reach 21.4 kg per capita in 2031, up from the baseline of 20.5 kg per capita (average 2019–2021). Per capita consumption will increase in all continents except Africa, the region with the fastest growing population (OECD/FAO, 2022). By 2030, aquaculture is projected to produce substantially more than capture fisheries (by around 6 million tonnes). In terms of total production, aquaculture will surpass capture fisheries in 2023 and by 2030 aquaculture will represent 52% of all aquatic animal production (i.e., excluding aquatic plants). It is difficult to anticipate and project future production trends for individual species or species groups. Figure 1 illustrates average annual growth rates for key species groups contributing significantly to global production. The highest rates of growth are for higher value species such as salmonids and shrimps/prawns, but the greatest volumes of production and the highest rates of absolute growth in production come from the lower value species such as the carps. Evidence from terrestrial agriculture suggests that high volume production evolves for a relatively small number of species. Cai et al. (2022) point to an overall deceleration of species diversification in aquaculture although trends are regionally diverse. They predict this trend to continue with concentration of production on some of the key aquaculture species. (Source: OECD/FAO, 2022) Recent, in-depth, global reviews of the rapid progress of aquaculture over the past decade toward increased environmental responsibilities and resource conservation (Boyd et al., 2020; Naylor et al., 2021) lay a new foundation for aquaculture's future contributions to the SDGs (Troell et al., 2023). The potential of aquaculture development throughout the world at all scales is now included in the assessments of the future of aquatic food or “blue foods”, or in a “blue transformation”, by international agencies, university centers, governments, nongovernmental and philanthropic organizations (CEA Consulting, 2020; Crona et al., 2023; Costello et al., 2019; FAO, 2022c; HLPE, 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019; O'Shea et al., 2019; SAPEA, 2017; Stuchtey et al., 2020). Transdisciplinary assessments of both fed and unfed aquaculture systems have shown that many types of aquaculture systems produce products of higher nutritional values and altogether aquaculture accounted for less than 1% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2017, similar to emissions from sheep production (Gephart et al., 2016, 2021; Hallström et al., 2019; MacLeod et al., 2020). However, significant socio–cultural inequities lead to food justice inequality and consequently political opposition to aquaculture exists, which poses serious obstacles to its expansion and growth (Brugere et al., 2023; Carter, 2018; Krause et al., 2015). As emphasized by Troell et al. (2023), a more in-depth understanding by policymakers and investors of the “extraordinary diversity of aquaculture, both species and systems, becomes crucial for development of the sector's present and future contributions to the different SDGs". Aquaculture touches every one of the SDGs; and its scaling involves every socio–political dimension. As a result, the future expansion of aquaculture systems, and their abilities to play a greater role to achieve the SDGs, will require a greater integration with a wider diversity of economic and environmental professions engaged in planning and investments in the broader terrestrial/aquatic food–water–energy nexus, and the natural resource, rural development, and human health system communities. Outstanding examples of aquaculture's benefits to rural communities and health food system economies exist when such engagement and planned integrations have been developed (Hernandez et al., 2017). Troell et al. (2023) emphasizes this point, stating, “Having a broader value-chain perspective will be imperative for gaining deeper insights about aquaculture's overall contribution to the SDGs, for understanding outcomes from investments and transformation efforts especially in diversifying supply chains and livelihoods”. The IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report (AR6) released in March 2023 (Lee et al., 2023) documents that during the last decade (2010–2019), GHG emissions continued to increase “from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, causing many weather and climate extremes…and led to widespread adverse impacts on food and water security, human health and on economies and society, related losses and damages to nature and people”. Over 90% of human food production comes from terrestrial agriculture, which accounts for an estimated one third of all GHG emissions (Gilbert, 2012). Expansion of terrestrial agriculture, to provide the projected need for foods to 2050, has serious resource and environmental constraints. If relied upon to the exclusion of aquaculture's options, further unacceptable destruction of the Earth's remaining natural ecosystems and reserves from deforestation, conversions of grasslands, expansion of water irrigation systems, etc. will occur (Costa-Pierce, 2016). There are many proven options known for decades to integrate aquaculture efficiently and into terrestrial food Expansion of these into Africa is a of the systems and its With the expansion of aquaculture technologies and global land (e.g., aquaculture systems, and aquaculture food systems will need to be with energy systems at all scales 2017; et al., et al., In as is estimated to account for of of the global development of aquaculture will not only in the economic of farming but in the of communities in of the world aquaculture is Fisheries and aquaculture in many for with from to aquaculture, and also in the with similar the integration of planning and of the two sectors is to their future development and et al. recognized that food systems of fisheries and aquaculture be but are products a fisheries and aquaculture are and throughout the world as they are their and and not the current opportunities, and in hybrid and not integrate across of across professions is to on food that data on rural economic development, and their and In the coming decade a greater diversity of hybrid will with climate and social changes, and their system in and contributions to advancing rural will need more of across professions will be to on the development of aquaculture as an aquatic food will need to data on rural economic development, and their and (Costa-Pierce, 2023). the expansion of aquaculture and that will not only and communities but also impacts or natural The to Aquaculture an foundation for this in the last decade (FAO, but progress has been slow (Brugere et al., 2019). and being led by global nongovernmental organizations such as the and their in and aquaculture new sustainable expansion pathways to aquaculture in the coming decades et al., 2023; et al., 2021; 2023). At the now and support new examples of international and for new of sustainable aquaculture is the new for Aquaculture at Shanghai in China, which was as a and commitment the GCA +20 attention to the of aquaculture development, and will and of and et al., 2019). FAO FAO to in with such to sustainable aquaculture, the importance of the to and technical for its (FAO, FAO is the specifically into their global on Sustainable Aquaculture currently The thematic reviews provided an for the GCA +20 and the of the Shanghai Declaration on Aquaculture for Food and Sustainable Development S1). The conference in the of the Shanghai Declaration by the participants and this was by the of of support by agencies, and international the and The Shanghai Declaration a to the role that aquaculture can play in achieving the 2030 for Sustainable It the of conference participants of sustainable aquaculture, strategic and a for In the Shanghai Declaration stakeholders a series of toward achieving the for sustainable aquaculture promoting aquaculture development and strengthening to and information and in aquaculture and and and The of the Declaration by the conference participants is an for global aquaculture, and all stakeholders are to it when toward sustainable aquaculture. The COFI Declaration for Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture (FAO, 2021) potential of aquaculture for further innovative practices that support environmental as well as the benefits of new and sustainable aquaculture development and the need for investments to support capacity and with a attention to population growth will challenge food systems The of FAO's (FAO, which with the COFI Declaration, is to provide a basis for the of aquatic food for a growing population. This should be in a that is and sustainable and and the and of and nutritious aquatic food for in for and food and waste. It should also that aquatic food systems to improving rights and of communities to achieve and support resilience in aquatic food systems that are by anthropogenic and including from a In to aquaculture, the is to achieve the sustainable and expansion of aquaculture in a that global demand for aquatic food and benefits This be global and regional planning and of and of aquaculture that environmental impact and use resources and is by and reporting of the growth and impacts of aquaculture. the key proposed to support and sustainable growth of the sector are the for Sustainable Aquaculture currently preparation by FAO, which will provide a and for countries to the development of sustainable At present is no upon of sustainable aquaculture, but it be as of producing nutritious aquatic food and products in a that is and and to the needs of present and future It involves production systems and technologies that impacts on the and the health and productivity of aquatic and support that human and Sustainable aquaculture practices farming such as non-fed aquaculture, aquaculture systems, or to reduce the use of water and land resources and waste. They also and other from sustainable conservation and of aquatic biodiversity, the use of and other and high animal Sustainable aquaculture should not only be by and but also by the development of governance frameworks, and and and by capacity building. sustainable aquaculture social and economic such as and labor practices and and gender and to that the industry is not only sustainable but also and in the The thematic reviews presented in this special of this provide greater and further key on the issues that need to be to on the GCA +20 and the Shanghai Declaration for the future of sustainable aquaculture. FAO to with key the next global conference in this series to progress and further the impacts of the being in support of sustainable aquaculture The in this publication are of the and not the or of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United data Annex Shanghai Aquaculture for food and sustainable development The is not for the or of information by the than should be to the for the