Hyping emerging military technology: probing the causes and consequences of excessive expectations

International relations scholars and military historians episodically observe that emerging military technology can generate ‘hype’, that is, excessive expectations about the near-term impact of emerging technologies. Yet there has been little attempt to conceptualize hype, enquire as to why it occurs, or study its impact on military innovation. As decisions concerning new military technologies are highly significant for states’ military capabilities, lack of attention on hype is a non-trivial shortcoming. This article provides a framework for better understanding what hype is and examines how it affects the choices states – or more to the point, those acting on their behalf – make about which military technologies to pursue in a world where war is an ever-present possibility.