A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning, this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production. In this new method, the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period. It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model (VPM), with precision of 80%–95%, which is 6.6%–13.2% higher than that of other life cycle models. Furthermore, a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin, with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6% and 3% respectively. The new method can be used to guide the medium- and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development. It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.