Dynamic Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of Touristic Ecological Carrying Capacity of Forest Parks in China

Forest park tourism ecological security is the cornerstone of ensuring ecological tourism safety. Delineating the ecological carrying capacity within forest parks is crucial for enhancing the security of forest tourism resources. This study utilizes statistical data from China’s forest parks spanning 2004 to 2019, employing methodologies to comprehensively depict the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of forest park tourism ecology in China. Subsequently, this research forecasts the prospective trajectory of forest park tourism ecology in China from 2020 to 2029. The research findings reveal that China’s forest park tourism ecological footprint exhibits oscillating characteristics, while the overall touristic ecological carrying capacity shows a sustained upward trend. However, a significant portion of regions experience deficits in tourism ecology. Notably, the coldspot regions with ecological security features demonstrate relative stability, while the hotspot areas gradually transition from inland to eastern coastal regions. Spatially and temporally, the disparities in touristic ecological profit and deficit depict a “U”-shaped distribution, more pronounced along the east–west axis than the north–south orientation. The migratory shift in the touristic ecological surplus and deficit center gravitates towards the southwest, demonstrating a fluctuating trend characterized by varying migration speeds. The discernible difference between the east and west concerning touristic ecological profit and deficit amplifies the likelihood of imbalance, surpassing disparities between the north and south. Projections suggest a deepening forest park tourism ecological deficit in China from 2020 to 2029, particularly accentuating the unsustainable development of forest park resources in economically developed regions. Through this study, a more comprehensive understanding of the current status and changing trends in the ecological carrying capacity of forest park tourism can be obtained. This research provides theoretical and practical support to promote sustainable tourism development and establishes a solid foundation for the ecological security of future forest park tourism.