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Significance President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is determined to win the city back from the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). With a population of over 16 million, Istanbul accounts for 31% of the country’s GDP and 47% of its tax revenues. Impacts The sense of Kurdish alienation from the central authorities will be pronounced regardless of the March electoral outcomes. Erdogan will leverage the Gaza war to signal his regional and international stature to the public. Improving the economic outlook will dominate the government’s agenda, but governance and capacity issues will be major obstacles.
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