Susceptible Young Adults and Development of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Later in Life

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has its origin in early life, and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) proposes a predisease state termed “pre-COPD.” Objectives: We tested the hypothesis that susceptible young adults identified with chronic bronchitis and subtle lung function impairment will develop COPD later in life. Methods: We followed random individuals without COPD ages 20–50 years from two population-based cohorts from different smoking eras—the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2003 (N = 5,497) and the Copenhagen City Heart Study from 1976–1978 (N = 2,609)—for 10 and 25 years, for the development of COPD (FEV1/FVC,0.70) and COPD GOLD Stages 2–4 (additionally, FEV1 ,80% predicted). Measurements and Main Results: After 10 years, 28% developed COPD and 13% developed COPD GOLD Stages 2–4 in individuals susceptible to COPD, compared with 8% and 1% in those without any susceptibility to COPD. Correspondingly, after 25 years, 22% versus 13% developed COPD and 20% versus 8% developed COPD GOLD Stages 2–4. More than half of incident COPD cases developed from a susceptible state. Compared with those without susceptibility to COPD, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios in those susceptible to COPD were 3.42 (95% confidence interval: 2.78–4.21) for COPD and 10.1 (6.77–15.2) for COPD GOLD Stages 2–4 after 10 years and were 1.54 (1.23–1.93) and 2.12 (1.64–2.73) after 25 years. The ability of a COPD risk score—consisting of the state of susceptibility to COPD with smoking and asthma as risk factors—to predict COPD later in life was high. Conclusions: Our study suggests the existence of a predisease state of COPD, which can be used for early identification of susceptible individuals at risk for COPD later in life.