Application of the on-site P-wave earthquake early warning method based on site-specific ratios of S-waves to P-waves to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Japan

Abstract The on-site P-wave earthquake early warning (EEW) based on the site-specific ratios of S-waves to P-waves has been applied to large-sized offshore earthquakes, and the efficiency of the method has been validated. However, the method requires the P-waves including earthquake ground motions radiated from a large slip area while avoiding the inclusion of S-waves. In this study, we investigated the applicability of the on-site P-wave EEW method for ground motions near an earthquake source fault region, using strong-motion data observed during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence in Japan. At first, we examined the appropriate time-window length following the arrival of the P-waves. As a result, P-waves with a time-window length of 2.56 s after the arrival at most strong-motion stations were required at least to predict appropriately S-waves for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, including the large-sized earthquakes. On the other hand, in the case of the large-sized earthquake as the mainshock ( Mj 7.3), the method can predict within a brief time of 0.5 to 2 s in the operational use that strong ground motions exceeding a certain threshold (e.g., acceleration of 150 cm/s 2 ) will come. Moreover, we found that the method was not strongly affected by the non-linearity of soil deposits due to strong ground motions during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. The variability of the relationship between P- and S-waves at the seismic bedrock influenced by the source and path effects is larger than the variability of the relationships between P-/S-waves at the seismic bedrock and at the ground surface by the site effects, and therefore, it hides the effect of the non-linearity of soil deposits. Graphical Abstract