A neural signature for the subjective experience of threat anticipation under uncertainty

Abstract Uncertainty about potential future threats and the associated anxious anticipation represents a key feature of anxiety. However, the neural systems that underlie the subjective experience of threat anticipation under uncertainty remain unclear. Combining an uncertainty-variation threat anticipation paradigm that allows precise modulation of the level of momentary anxious arousal during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with multivariate predictive modeling, we train a brain model that accurately predicts subjective anxious arousal intensity during anticipation and test it across 9 samples (total n = 572, both gender). Using publicly available datasets, we demonstrate that the whole-brain signature specifically predicts anxious anticipation and is not sensitive in predicting pain, general anticipation or unspecific emotional and autonomic arousal. The signature is also functionally and spatially distinguishable from representations of subjective fear or negative affect. We develop a sensitive, generalizable, and specific neuroimaging marker for the subjective experience of uncertain threat anticipation that can facilitate model development.