Predator selection on phenotypic variability of cryptic and aposematic moths

Abstract Natural selection generally favours phenotypic variability in camouflaged organisms, whereas aposematic organisms are expected to evolve a more uniform warning coloration. However, no comprehensive analysis of the phenotypic consequences of predator selection in aposematic and cryptic species exists. Using state-of-the-art image analysis, we examine 2800 wing images of 82 moth species accessed via three online museum databases. We test whether anti-predator strategy (i.e., camouflage or aposematism) explains intraspecific variation in wing colour and pattern across northern hemisphere moths. In addition, we test two mutually non-exclusive, ecological hypotheses to explain variation in colour pattern: diel-activity or dietary-niche. In this work, taking into account phylogenetic relationships, moth phenotypic variability is best explained by anti-predator strategy with camouflaged moths being more variable in wing patterning than aposematic species.