NLCECA score: a serum inflammatory-tumor biomarker score to predict survival of advanced perihilar cholangiocarcinoma after hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy

Abstract Prognostic features in advanced perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients who received first-line hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) are unknown. The purpose of our study was to develop an applicable score based on serum inflammatory-tumor biomarkers to predict the survival of advanced pCCA patients who received first-line HAIC. In total, 106 advanced pCCA patients were enrolled as the training cohort. The optimal cutoff values of baseline variables were defined by the receiver operating characteristic method or according to previous publications. According to the results of Cox regression analysis, baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 3.19, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) > 10 ng/mL, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) > 200 U/mL were identified as independent survival predictors, which were used to develop the NLCECA score (NLR, CEA, and CA19-9). When including the NLCECA score in the multivariate analysis, the NLCECA score was the only independent predictor of survival. The risk of survival decreased by 111.9% for each 1-point increase in the NLCECA score. Additionally, the NLCECA score could also predict survival in another 33 patients in the validation cohort ( P < 0.001). In summary, the NLCECA score is a potential biomarker system for predicting the survival of advanced pCCA patients who received first-line HAIC.