Oil or geopolitical issues? : Quantitative rethinking of political instability in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract The Middle East and North Africa are one of the most conflict-prone regions. Due to its geopolitical position and oil production, the Middle East has always been the trump card in the game, both before World War II and during the Cold War, still today. Why do wars persist in the Middle East? Why has the situation in the Middle East deteriorated to this extent? Is rentier economics always a vital variable explaining political instability in the Middle East? After empirically analyzing the causes of political instability in the Middle East using various data, the study suggests that the experience of being a colony of Britain, France, and Italy hurt society and that the critical geographic location between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War suffered various harmful effects. On the other hand, the result also shows that manufacturing weakness due to the oil economy, high unemployment rates, and lack of democracy are all critical explanatory variables for political instability. Since the 2000s, the United States has increased its energy self-sufficiency rate through the shale oil and gas revolution. The Middle East is an option for the United States to buy oil. On the other hand, the Middle East is essential for the United States to export weapons. The Middle East has faced a geopolitical crisis in recent years due to these factors.