Utilizing imaging parameters for functional outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke: A machine learning study

Abstract Background and Purpose We aimed to predict the functional outcome of acute ischemic stroke patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusions (LVOs), irrespective of how they were treated or the severity of the stroke at admission, by only using imaging parameters in machine learning models. Methods Consecutive adult patients with anterior circulation LVOs who were scanned with CT angiography (CTA) and CT perfusion were queried in this single‐center, retrospective study. The favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin score (mRS) of 0‐2 at 90 days. Predictor variables included only imaging parameters. CatBoost, XGBoost, and Random Forest were employed. Algorithms were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), the area under the precision‐recall curve (AUPRC), accuracy, Brier score, recall, and precision. SHapley Additive exPlanations were implemented. Results A total of 180 patients (102 female) were included, with a median age of 69.5. Ninety‐two patients had an mRS between 0 and 2. The best algorithm in terms of AUROC was XGBoost (0.91). Furthermore, the XGBoost model exhibited a precision of 0.72, a recall of 0.81, an AUPRC of 0.83, an accuracy of 0.78, and a Brier score of 0.17. Multiphase CTA collateral score was the most significant feature in predicting the outcome. Conclusions Using only imaging parameters, our model had an AUROC of 0.91 which was superior to most previous studies, indicating that imaging parameters may be as accurate as conventional predictors. The multiphase CTA collateral score was the most predictive variable, highlighting the importance of collaterals.