Using machine learning techniques to predict the risk of osteoporosis based on nationwide chronic disease data

Abstract Osteoporosis is a major public health concern that significantly increases the risk of fractures. The aim of this study was to develop a Machine Learning based predictive model to screen individuals at high risk of osteoporosis based on chronic disease data, thus facilitating early detection and personalized management. A total of 10,000 complete patient records of primary healthcare data in the German Disease Analyzer database (IMS HEALTH) were included, of which 1293 diagnosed with osteoporosis and 8707 without the condition. The demographic characteristics and chronic disease data, including age, gender, lipid disorder, cancer, COPD, hypertension, heart failure, CHD, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and stroke were collected from electronic health records. Ten different machine learning algorithms were employed to construct the predictive mode. The performance of the model was further validated and the relative importance of features in the model was analyzed. Out of the ten machine learning algorithms, the Stacker model based on Logistic Regression, AdaBoost Classifier, and Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrated superior performance. The Stacker model demonstrated excellent performance through ten-fold cross-validation on the training set and ROC curve analysis on the test set. The confusion matrix, lift curve and calibration curves indicated that the Stacker model had optimal clinical utility. Further analysis on feature importance highlighted age, gender, lipid metabolism disorders, cancer, and COPD as the top five influential variables. In this study, a predictive model for osteoporosis based on chronic disease data was developed using machine learning. The model shows great potential in early detection and risk stratification of osteoporosis, ultimately facilitating personalized prevention and management strategies.