The development of bio-based industry in the European Union: A prospective integrated modelling assessment

Quantitative bioeconomy simulation models aid our understanding of the complex market driven dynamics accompanying the transition to a net-zero economy. This research addresses knowledge gaps in EU bioeconomy modelling capacity, particularly representations of contemporary bio-based industrial markets. Encompassing a comprehensive selection of biomass types and bioeconomy activities, an integrated model toolbox is constructed consisting of five state-of-the-art bioeconomy simulation models. Focusing on a public-policy driven bio-based industrial transformation, exploratory scenarios examine the synergies and trade-offs for the EU through the prism of its five bioeconomy pillars. Results indicate that the promotion of biomass for industry reduces fossil dependence, although if enacted globally, may result in a substantial increase in biomass demand. In addition, carbon taxes further accelerate market opportunities for bio-based alternatives, although a bio-based industry transformation contingent, at least in part, on woody and agricultural biomass feedstocks, will not achieve important reductions in emissions. Finally, in addition to a strict adherence to the principle of circularity in biomass usage, a socially responsible change in consumption behaviour represents an essential strategy for easing (agricultural) biomass market tensions.