Proposing a framework to quantify the potential impact of pharmacokinetic drug–drug interactions caused by a new drug candidate by using real world data about the target patient population

Drug development teams must evaluate the risk/benefit profile of new drug candidates that perpetrate drug-drug interactions (DDIs). Real-world data (RWD) can inform this decision. The purpose of this study was to develop a predicted impact score for DDIs perpetrated by three hypothetical drug candidates via CYP3A, CYP2D6, or CYP2C9 in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity, or migraine. Optum Market Clarity was analyzed to estimate use of CYP3A, CYP2D6, or CYP2C9 substrates classified in the University of Washington Drug Interaction Database as moderate sensitive, sensitive, narrow therapeutic index, or QT prolongation. Scoring was based on prevalence of exposure to victim substrates and characteristics (age, polypharmacy, duration of exposure, and number of prescribers) of those exposed. The study population of 14,163,271 adults included 1,579,054 with T2DM, 3,117,753 with obesity, and 410,436 with migraine. For T2DM, 71.3% used CYP3A substrates, 44.3% used CYP2D6 substrates, and 44.3% used CYP2C9 substrates. For obesity, 57.1% used CYP3A substrates, 34.6% used CYP2D6 substrates, and 31.0% used CYP2C9 substrates. For migraine, 64.1% used CYP3A substrates, 44.0% used CYP2D6 substrates, and 28.9% used CYP2C9 substrates. In our analyses, the predicted DDI impact scores were highest for DDIs involving CYP3A, followed by CYP2D6, and CYP2C9 substrates, and highest for T2DM, followed by migraine, and obesity. Insights from RWD can be used to estimate a predicted DDI impact score for pharmacokinetic DDIs perpetrated by new drug candidates currently in development. This score can inform the risk/benefit profile of new drug candidates in a target patient population.