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Significance Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023 presidential election has strengthened his hand for dealing with foreign partners. Impacts Potential regional instability linked to the Gaza conflict poses a risk to Turkey’s core goals. Ankara will resist pressure to cut or downgrade ties with Hamas. Domestic economic pressures may redouble Erdogan’s focus on the search for new foreign investment. The rise of right-wing populism in several European countries could further complicate Turkey's relations with the EU.
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