Assessing climatic, hydrogeological, and anthropogenic factors shaping sustainable soil management: A case study in northern Germany

Sustainable soil and land management which is vital for security of natural resources and food production is a complex task due to the wide range of parameters influencing soil quality and health (1,2). Various parameters, including climatic variables such as precipitation, evaporation, and, in coastal regions, sea level rise and saltwater intrusion (3), hydrogeological factors like groundwater table levels influencing evaporative fluxes (4), groundwater salinity, and soil properties as well as anthropogenic factors such as fertilization and land use, play important roles in sustainable soil management and health. In this study, we gathered diverse climatic, hydrogeological, and anthropogenic data within an intensive food production and natural preservation study area situated in North Sea adjacent northern Germany to explore the complex interplay of parameters affecting soil health and characterize the impact of these variables on sustainable soil management. The area is characterized by predominantly flat terrain with fertile soils utilized for agriculture and grazing. Additionally, it contains protected areas such as forests. Due to significant variations in land use and soil properties across the region, we categorized the area into subgroups for robust comparability. This involved dividing the region into agricultural, grassland, and forest areas, each identified by specific characteristics, such as crop production, meadow type, fertilization method, and soil nutrient holding capacity. Additional parameters including precipitation, evaporation, and leakage were factored into a groundwater recharge model for the area. Statistical analysis and machine learning algorithms were employed to assess the interrelations among these parameters affecting sustainable soil management. Recognizing these interrelations, we adapted our model to potential future scenarios and discussed how hypothetical alterations to parameters such as groundwater recharge and added fertilizer could impact land management in the study area. Our findings are applicable to areas employing similar land management practices, offering insights into the vulnerabilities and potentials of these regions in the face of a changing climate and are useful for implementing mitigation measures against land degradation and preventing the loss of fertile soil. 1. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Sci., 117(52), 33017-33027, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117 2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2021). Global Predictions of Primary Soil Salinization Under Changing Climate in the 21st Century, Nat. , 12, 6663. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26907-3 3. Nevermann, H., Gomez, J.N.B., Frhle, P., Shokri, N. (2023), Land loss implications of sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia under different climate change scenarios, Clim. Risk Manag., 39, 100470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.10047 4. Sadeghi, M., Shokri, N., Jones, S.B. (2012). A novel analytical solution to steady-state evaporation from porous media. Water Resour. Res., 48, W09516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012