Future food systems compatible with agricultural boundaries for biodiversity

Agriculture is the main driver of the rapid collapse of biodiversity, upon which all life on Earth, including agricultural production, depends. While the potential to expand and improve natural habitats for biodiversity conservation has been widely explored in large-scale scenarios of agricultural systems, the critical role of agricultural landscapes management on halting the loss of biodiversity remains unexplored at this scale. The aim of this study is precisely to fill this literature gap by proposing an exploratory scenario that evaluates a global agri-food system compatible with biodiversity conservation within and across farmlands, and minimize agricultures far-reaching impacts on biodiversity. First, based on a literature review, we identified the main biodiversity pressures stemming from agriculture: land-use change, contribution to climate change, water withdrawal, pesticide pollution, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution, and landscape and farm-scale simplification (of croplands and pastures). Second, for each one, we proposed a critical boundary which negative impacts on biodiversity are minimized or positive effects arise. Third we developed a global biophysical mass-balance model to assess some characteristics of food systems compatible with these critical boundaries, especially food production reallocation, links between the animal and the plant sector and diets.