The Effect of More Choice on Voter Turnout Causal Evidence from Germany

In response to alleged citizen distrust of politics and parties, recent reforms have made electoral systems more candidate-centred. Rational choice theory claims that candidate-centred voting should make voting more rewarding while incentivising candidates to increase their campaigning. Behaviouralists point to the higher number of options, which would lead to abstention. This study investigates the reforms in Bremen and Hamburg, where the simple, single-vote, closed-list PR system was replaced with a multiple-vote preferential-list PR system in 2011. Employing a difference-in-differences design, the study reveals a significant decrease in voter turnout of at least ten percentage points in Bremen, Bremerhaven, and Hamburg, compared to the trend in comparable German districts. A cross-level analysis of 79 election surveys fielded since 2000 in all of Germany, comprising 97,849 respondents, highlights that the reforms have widened the participation gap between the lower- and higher-educated Bremen and Hamburg citizens compared to elsewhere in Germany. These findings contribute to research on electoral systems, choice, and voter turnout, emphasising the potential adverse consequences that can emerge from complex electoral system redesigns.