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El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the most prominent climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean, significantly influences global climate and weather patterns, impacting ecosystems and societies worldwide. Our study focuses on the underexplored aspect of summer-persistent ENSO events, their global climatic impacts, and their role in triggering extreme weather occurrence.ENSO events follow a distinct cycle, with El Nios more tightly bound to this cycle, while some La Nias tend to fall below the ENSO threshold during the summer and then re-intensify in the following winter, resulting in multi-year La Nia events. However, there have been cases of slower ENSO decay, where sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) exceeding the ENSO threshold values into the northern-hemisphere summer, have been observed. The 2018/2019 El Nio, persisting until July, is a recent example, linked to significant events like the severe Australian bushfires in 2020 and the longest heatwave in history in the North Pacific in 2019. The El Nio was followed by a triple-dip La Nia, linked to extreme weather events in Africa, Australia and the United States. This highlights the importance of understanding the summer-persistent ENSO events.Our study is structured based on three aims: identifying past summer-persistent ENSO events, assessing their impacts on global temperature and precipitation patterns, and examining their linkage to extreme weather events. Utilizing the Oceanic Nio Index calculated from the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSSTv5), we categorised ENSO events into conventional, summer-persistent, and multi-year summer-persistent types. The latter two were defined by events in which the Oceanic Nio Index exceeded the ENSO threshold until June for one or two consecutives summer seasons, respectively. We identified 12 summer-persistent ENSO events since 1940, separated into four summer-persistent El Nios, five summer-persistent La Nias, and three multi-year summer-persistent La Nias. Analyzing ERA5 reanalysis composites of 2-m temperature and precipitation, we compared the climatic impacts of these ENSO variants across winter and summer. This study advances our understanding of the climatic consequences of summer-persistent ENSO events, providing insights crucial for developing mitigation strategies for their impacts on global climate and extreme weather occurrences.
Schultze et al. (Sat,) studied this question.